Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.109332 1.172372 1.237769 1.310814 1.390290 1.474328 1.570147
2026-02-01 0.995636 1.082946 1.177425 1.287785 1.413829 1.554101 1.723141
2026-02-08 0.914618 1.013722 1.123999 1.256774 1.413603 1.594605 1.821762
2026-02-15 0.863770 0.971967 1.095122 1.247153 1.431872 1.651818 1.937853
2026-02-22 0.828564 0.944612 1.079328 1.249335 1.461188 1.720715 2.069589
2026-03-01 0.788365 0.908281 1.049721 1.231464 1.462749 1.752955 2.154322
2026-03-08 0.746699 0.867682 1.012252 1.200813 1.445028 1.757747 2.200973
2026-03-15 0.719233 0.842881 0.992566 1.190744 1.452023 1.793637 2.290310
2026-03-22 0.706877 0.835945 0.994380 1.207576 1.494194 1.877699 2.451532
2026-03-29 0.688680 0.820674 0.984623 1.208320 1.514162 1.931746 2.572723
2026-04-05 0.676814 0.812790 0.983719 1.220274 1.549380 2.008328 2.732162
2026-04-12 0.657097 0.793949 0.967621 1.210718 1.553711 2.040348 2.825278
2026-04-19 0.647039 0.787828 0.968654 1.225447 1.594362 2.129634 3.018944
2026-04-26 0.623868 0.763708 0.944832 1.204688 1.582836 2.140435 3.087114
2026-05-03 0.599469 0.737132 0.916692 1.176526 1.558775 2.130236 3.118744
2026-05-10 0.583662 0.721493 0.902773 1.167782 1.562755 2.163138 3.225649
2026-05-17 0.572636 0.711876 0.896652 1.169766 1.582633 2.221803 3.382135
2026-05-24 0.555973 0.694074 0.878564 1.153519 1.573648 2.233196 3.454308
2026-05-31 0.536246 0.671552 0.853209 1.125629 1.545267 2.211063 3.462503
2026-06-07 0.523721 0.658590 0.840859 1.116461 1.545614 2.236291 3.561425
2026-06-14 0.519772 0.657328 0.844911 1.131786 1.585232 2.329713 3.800285
2026-06-21 0.511394 0.649625 0.839478 1.132462 1.601164 2.383242 3.965567
2026-06-28 0.506546 0.646708 0.840770 1.143340 1.634078 2.468368 4.204447